American Muslims and the 2024 Election: Why American Muslims Are Rethinking Political Alliances

For Muslims, solidarity with Palestine and the Muslim world is an overarching Islamic and ethical imperative. This imperative has influenced American Muslim politics for decades. It may be difficult to imagine now, but in the 2000 presidential election, an estimated 40-70% of American Muslims voted for the Republican nominee, George W. Bush, who narrowly defeated Al Gore. Bush and his vice president, Dick Cheney, were seen as better for Muslims on domestic and foreign policy than Gore and Lieberman, including their stances on Palestine. Many Muslims celebrated Bush’s win, with some claiming credit for tipping the scale in his favor in the decisive state of Florida, where the margin of victory was a mere 537 votes (.009%). 

Perceived triumph quickly turned into a nightmare when just weeks after the events of 9/11, Bush and the Republican party signed the Patriot Act into law. It permitted the government to spy on ordinary Americans by monitoring phone calls, emails, bank and credit records, and track internet activity without reason. The heightened surveillance laws targeted Muslims, suppressing their civil liberties and right to due process. These dangerous domestic policies were coupled with a disastrous foreign policy. Iraq and Afghanistan were invaded, and hundreds of thousands of innocent Muslims were murdered as a direct result.

In the 2004 election, the American Muslim community abandoned the Republican Party en masse. Though he didn’t ultimately beat Bush, John Kerry became the first in a long line of Democratic politicians to enjoy widespread Muslim support. The longer the Bush administration waged war on Muslims at home and abroad, the friendlier to Muslim interests the Democrats appeared to be. The community wedded itself to the Democratic party for the ensuing decades, with estimates of 80-92% voting for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012. To demonstrate how strong the emotional attachment to the Democratic party became, we can look at how differently Muslims perceived both Bush’s and Obama’s efforts to combat terrorism. In a 2007 Pew poll, during Bush’s second term, 26% of Muslims viewed the “U.S-led war on terrorism” as sincere, while 55% said it was insincere. Fast forward four years later to 2011, when Obama was president, and 43% of Muslims said that U.S. efforts to combat terrorism were sincere while 41% said they were not. Most Americans were unaware of the extent to which the Obama administration engaged in wars and covert drone attacks across multiple countries, in many ways exceeding the Bush administration’s own militarism. Then, in the 2016 and 2020 elections, between 65-80% of Muslims voted for Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden, fearing Trump’s proposal at the time to ban immigration from many Muslim-majority countries. 

Thus, for the past two decades, American Muslims have consistently supported the Democratic party due to perceptions that the Democrats have Muslim interests closer to heart. In recent years, however, some Muslims have grown disenchanted with this political alliance due to a perceived incongruence between liberal and Islamic values, particularly concerning gender and sexuality.

LGBTQ issues have become a major political touchstone for some Muslims, who are especially worried about the effects on their children of being exposed to material they deem objectionable. By May 2023, American Muslim leadership had recognized the gravity of the LGBTQ issue and clarified the normative Islam position on gender and sexuality in the widely circulated “Navigating Differences” document. Nonetheless, disagreements over social values, including LGBTQ matters, were not enough to sever the relationship between Muslims and Democrats in 2023.

As the 2024 presidential election nears, many are wondering where American Muslims stand politically. As is the case with many other political domains, one needs to be wary of questionable sources of information. For example, the NY Post, a right-wing media outlet, claimed that nearly a third of Muslims plan to vote for Trump in the upcoming election, based on a dubious survey commissioned by the unknown Muslim American Leadership Alliance. Obtaining accurate representative data on Muslim Americans has been incredibly difficult, and the results of any given poll will likely reflect only a particular segment of the community.

We surveyed American Muslims between August 27th and September 8th to better understand how they think and behave politically. Our sample of 1,223 American Muslims is likely not representative of the national Muslim population, but does reflect the beliefs and behaviors of a segment of our community that is religious and college-educated. What did we find?

Over the past year, the American Muslim community has adopted the view that it is not only the Biden administration, but rather politicians on both sides, that fully support and endorse the genocide being perpetrated in Palestine. Joe Biden has been one of the most pro-Israeli presidents in American history, and his support of the genocide in Palestine is a clear red line for the Muslim community.

Foreign policy in the Middle East was the single most important issue to our sample, with 90.5% reporting it was “very important” to them personally. Of those who considered this issue “very important,” 86% said they would not vote for a candidate who did not hold the same position as them on the matter. Thus, the overwhelming majority of our sample of American Muslims have made Palestine the singular issue that determines their vote.

As the U.S.-funded genocide of Palestinians has bipartisan support, American Muslims have considerably negative views of both the Democratic and Republican candidates for president. Donald Trump was rated unfavorable by 89% of respondents in our survey. Kamala Harris was rated unfavorable by 74%, with only 15% viewing her favorably. Although Black Muslims viewed her more favorably than other racial groups, they still held her in low regard, with an average favorability of 2.5 on a 5-point scale (between “somewhat unfavorable” and “neither favorable/unfavorable).

The low favorability of these candidates is reflected in 2024 presidential voting intentions. In our sample, 69.3% reported voting for Joe Biden in 2020. However, only 6% had intended to vote for Biden in the upcoming 2024 election prior to him dropping out. After Biden was replaced by Harris, 14% said they intended to vote for Harris if the election was held today. However, of those few who said they plan to vote for Harris, 56% are doing so to oppose Trump’s policies, whereas only 13% are doing so in support of Harris’ policies. Even Black Muslims, who have typically voted Democrat, are largely abandoning Harris, with less than a third (32%) planning on voting for her. 

Thus, although replacing Biden did increase the anticipated Muslim vote for the Democratic candidate, the data shows the drop off in support remains precipitous and demonstrates just how rapidly American Muslims have abandoned the Democratic party. Given that 60% of Muslims approved of how Biden was handling his presidency as recently as 2022, the single greatest factor for American Muslims abandoning the party seems to be the Democratic administration’s support for the ongoing genocide in Gaza.

Notably, however, Muslims are not jumping back onto the Republican bandwagon. Only 4% of our respondents planned on voting for Trump. American Muslims are instead abandoning both traditional parties. The majority (53%) plan to vote for a third-party candidate, such as Jill Stein, Cornel West, or Chase Oliver. Many American Muslims seem aware that their vote may increase the odds of a Trump presidency. By stating their intention to vote for a third-party anti-genocide candidate or abstaining from voting altogether, they appear willing to endure the short-term consequences of a Republican administration considered hostile to Muslims.

Although Gaza has been the red line for American Muslims, their frustration and disillusionment with both parties is not limited to Palestine. We asked our respondents whether they perceived the Democratic or Republican party to be more effective on seven issues. The plurality of American Muslims believed that neither party would be more effective than the other on six of the seven issues we probed, with the only exception being climate change. Thus, from ending the genocide, combating Islamophobia, building a strong economy, immigration, reducing crime, and protecting religious freedoms, American Muslims believe neither of the major parties is very effective on domestic or foreign affairs.

Many American Muslims have come to the same conclusion that Malcolm X did in 1964 - the Democratic and Republican politicians are insincere and make promises they don’t intend to keep. Malcolm X warned against being politically naive and loyal to parties that do not fight for our causes. “So today our people are disillusioned,” he said. “They’ve become disenchanted. They’ve become dissatisfied. And in their frustrations, they want action.” His words appear to reflect the sentiments of American Muslims in 2024 as they search for a new strategy and course of action. American Muslims are behaving ummatically, acting on the Islamic imperative to stand for justice and with the oppressed. The heartbeat of American Muslims appears to be the cause of Palestine.